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Cloud9: The Wounded Master And His Students
Team SoloMid: The Super Team That Never Was
Versus: The Head to Head Showdown
Team SoloMid came into 2016 with a point to prove. They dropped almost all of their roster leaving Bjergsen as the only remaining player and looked to rebuild around him. Their first acquisition inflated the hype around the team to unseen levels as long time rival Doublelift joined the team. With a backbone of arguably the two best carry players in the League, TSM was immediately seen as a contender for one of the greatest Western lineups of all time.
Rumors swirled around other potential players from names such as former KT Rolster support Piccaboo to Fnatic’s YellowStar and when the dust finally settled a formidable roster in Hauntzer, Svenskeren, Bjergsen, Doublelift, and YellowStar emerged. Besides the acquisition of Doublelift, former Fnatic captain and shot caller, YellowStar, also brought about much fanfare. Finally, TSM would no longer rely on Bjergsen to carry the weight of shot calling duties, and with YellowStar as their in-game leader seemingly nothing could stop TSM.
The Super Team That Never Was
Yet if we took a deeper look at the team some worrying issues were apparent. Despite being an incredible leader, YellowStar’s laning was always a weak point and his combination with Doublelift -- who for years had developed one of the best laning phases with long time support Aphromoo -- was always going to be an issue. Furthermore, Svenskeren had been renowned for a super aggressive carry jungler playstyle, a playstyle that was well documented not to match the playstyle of TSM, who had always utilised a supportive jungler centered around mid lane pressure. However, many thought these issues would be overcome. Surely players of this calibre could adapt and perform, but the truth was far from it.
Throughout the season, the same issues have cropped up for TSM. YellowStar has struggled both mechanically and with his leadership as TSM’s shot calling has remained lacking -- although how much of that is due to YellowStar’s shot calling or the refusal of TSM to play around his shot calling is unknown.
Svenskeren has also struggled to adapt to a markedly different playstyle on TSM. Without the high-pressure playstyle that saw him flourish under SK Gaming, he’s found himself unable to impact games often being caught out of position or initiating team fights that his team is either unable or unwilling to follow up on. Perhaps what is even more worrying is his complete lack of synergy with YellowStar, which has seen both of them suffer on TSM.
Bjergsen, too, has not looked as dominant as in previous splits. This could be due to the dramatic increase in mid lane talent in NA as Cloud 9’s Jensen and NRG’s GBM have both been challenging Bjergsen for his title as the best mid laner in North America. But a floundering team has no doubt had an impact on TSM’s star player. Couple that with the fact that Doublelift has significantly shifted TSM’s gold dynamic away from funneling all their side lane gold into Bjergsen, he simply isn’t having the impact needed for his team to win games.
The Light At The End Of The Tunnel
There are a few shining lights for TSM in their dim regular season. Hauntzer has grown into a capable top laner in his time on TSM with a wide champion pool and a reliable input in TSM’s games. He’s not quite in the same calibre of top laners as Darshan or Huni, but he’s still a respectable player and one with plenty of room to grow.
Doublelift has been a bit hit and miss. You can definitely point to times where he’s made incorrect decisions, but statistically, he remains one of the North America’s best AD Carries with the highest damage share of any starting ADC in the league. As expected, his laning with YellowStar has proven to be an issue, and without the redeeming factor of shot calling this will need to improve as they look to make a run in the playoffs.
Sixth place just isn’t where you imagine a team like TSM. With the amount of effort they’ve gone to acquire their current roster, their position in the LCS simply hasn’t justified the means. Furthermore, it doesn’t look like it’s getting any better for TSM after another poor performance against fellow playoffs team, NRG, in the final week of the regular season. With a week off we’ll have to wait and see if TSM can somehow manage to muster up the necessary energy to keep their run of LCS Finals appearances going.
After last year's anime-styled run to Worlds, Cloud9 was looking to re-tool and rebuild for 2016. To bolster their roster, C9 signed former Team Impulse jungler and NA LCS Summer Split MVP, Yoonjae "Rush" Lee, and former Gravity support, Michael "Bunny Fufuu" Kurylo. Rush was set to take over the starting jungler position from Hai immediately while Bunny would form a rotation with Hai at the support position.
It's A New Day (Sort Of)
Despite never seeking a replacement for their biggest perceived weakness in the top lane, fans were hopeful heading into the new season. However, C9 got off to a rocky start. After the first two weeks of the split, C9 had a 2-2 record, with both losses coming with Bunny in the starting line-up. For whatever reason, C9 simply played better with Hai in the line-up. The results spoke for themselves, and Hai filled the support role full-time for the rest of the split.
After the brief setback, C9 looked like a well-oiled machine through the rest of the split. It wasn't a return to the heights of their past glory days, but it was a sign that C9 has a brighter future than what would've been believed before the playoffs last Summer.
Unlike Bunny's short stint in the starting lineup, Rush proved to be an excellent addition to the team from the beginning. His aggressive jungle style was a key factor in C9 having the second highest Average Gold Difference at 15 Minutes and Average Share of the Game's Total Jungle. Partnered with stellar performances from the rest of the team, including a resurgent Balls, and it's clear why C9 was contending for 2nd place right up until the end of the regular season.
A Horde Of Star Performances
Each member of the team, with the exception of Bunny, was named on the weekly "OP 5" at least once. Balls and Jensen both earned Weekly MVP accolades. In addition to being one of only two mid laners to be named Weekly MVP, as well as one of two players to be named Weekly MVP twice, Jensen was also named to the NA LCS All-Pro Team.
With loads of experience in high-pressure best-of-x series, C9 has a strong chance of making a deep run in the playoffs, potentially winning the whole thing. Due to seeding, they wouldn't face Immortals until the finals, potentially avoiding the only team they didn't take a game off of in the regular season. As long as C9 play to their strengths and avoid a showing like they had in Week 9 against Team Liquid, there should be no doubt that they are title contenders.
Regardless of the outcome of the Spring playoffs, the biggest problem for C9 is what will happen once Hai calls it quits for good. It's widely believed that using Hai over Bunny guarantees short-term success while possibly sacrificing success in the long-term. Hai can't play forever, but with Bunny waiting in the wings, he shouldn't have to. Best case scenario, C9 wins the Spring split, MSI is Hai's last tournament as a member of the starting roster, and Bunny plays support full-time in the Summer split. Short of that, C9 is playing on borrowed time without a clear solution to their problem.
Mechanically, there’s little to no difference between the teams. It’s arguable TSM have slight edges in the bottom and top lane, while Cloud9 find their advantages in the jungle and overall team play.
But that’s exactly what this game boils down to. Team play is where Cloud9 will look to push their advantages, and it’s also where TSM has completely fallen apart. Despite Bjergsen and Doublelift having the highest CSD@10 in their respective positions, TSM hemorrhages gold across the map. With such strong laners it’s expected that they would have a gold lead at 15 minutes, and yet they are slightly down gold. Their ability to take Barons is especially concerning as only serial baron throwers, Dignitas, and Team Impulse have a lower first Baron rate. Cloud9, on the other hand, are the second best team when it comes to taking Baron, averaging 71% of the first Barons in their games.
The Jungle/Support Duo
One could argue that the far more experienced support in YellowStar would be able to manhandle his much less experienced counterpart in Hai, but that simply hasn’t been the case this split. While Hai has looked a little shaky at times, his synergy with Rush far outweighs his obvious weaknesses in the role. Meanwhile, YellowStar has looked lost at sea alongside Svenskeren. Neither of them have shown the ability to work together to create any meaningful vision or pressure for TSM, and both of them have paid the price for it. YellowStar has done nothing to alleviate TSM's shotcalling woes as they still apear to be as
While Cloud9 have embraced Rush into their team, Svenskeren has been on the outside looking in for much of his time on TSM. When Sven was at his most damaging, he was given free roam on SK Gaming as his team played aggressive lanes that ensured he could constantly invade the enemy jungle. But TSM has never allowed their junglers to do that, and they haven’t changed that strategy all too much this split.
Rush has definitely developed into a more competitive style jungler, but his trademark solo queue aggression hasn’t completely evaporated it’s just been channelled in the right direction. In his debut split last year, Rush warded only 0.52 times per minute. This year, however, he’s bumped that up to 0.75 times per minute. He’s not quite topping the boards in terms of vision, but he’s no longer languishing in last place by a fair margin like he was last year. With reliable carries, Rush has become less of a carry himself, and more of an enabler for his team, and it’s clearly helped create a far more balanced environment for Rush to thrive in.
The Mid Laners
We can’t quite move on from this matchup without first taking a look at the mid laners. It’s no longer the battle between Hai and Bjergsen of old, the test between the mind and the brute force strength. Instead, we have Jensen, a player who has also developed quite well in his time on Cloud9. His initial nervousness and under performances have been replaced by a player who appears to be walking on water. It appears as though it’s almost impossible to gank him, as he dodges every single skill shot thrown his way, and yet still manages to hit all of his own skill shots for some of the most mesmerizing plays of the split.
Meanwhile, the original Wizard of the NA mid lane, Bjergsen, has had his feet become wet on more than a few occasions. While Bjergsen remains a strong laner, he hasn’t been able to remain a reliable team fight threat, and it’s shown in several of TSM’s losses.
When push comes to shove, Cloud9 will not only out team fight TSM; they’ll still out macro them too. For TSM to win, they’ll need to come together in a way that they haven’t been able to all split and for that reason, Cloud9 will be victors and will move onto Las Vegas.
AdsMoFro: C9 3-1 TSM
Wonderful: C9 3-1 TSM
2DKeith: C9 3-0 TSM
JonGalt: TSM 3-2 C9
PinkRambo: TSM 3-2 C9
739: C9 3-2 TSM
Zess: C9 3-1 TSM
Airheart: C9 3-0 TSM