UPDATE! As of 6/13/12 ~11.44pm
The new benchmark phase of this undertaking is partially completed. I have some new crunch for you all, and new startling statistic.
In all but one circumstance thus far, the winning team never falls 7% or more behind their opponent.
I'm currently in the process of compiling stats every 3minutes for every single game available on VOD by MLG. You can check the spreadsheet with the information here.
The chart of just the percentile information from which you can make your own charts is here.
From this raw information hopefully we'll develop an action plan to get a more tangible grip on just how snowbally LoL is.
Continuing on to the original post...
Long time lurker here who is trying to get into watching League of Legends. I've been watching tournaments for a long time but I began to notice a pattern that just really rankled me. If any team takes a lead by 12min, they are much much more likely to win said game. The game is setup in such a way that any early lead is basically insurmountable except by human error and throwing a game with sub-standard play.
To chart this information, I setup a reddit post I've been updating for two days. It can be found here. I'll copy and paste highlights, but basically over two days the results have been remarkable. The team that takes as little as a 10% gold lead by 12 minutes wins over 90% of the time. I wasn't expecting it to be so marked. Imagine watching game 7 tonight and seeing the Celtics go up 45-40 late in the second quarter and being able to say with 90% certainty that they are going to the finals.
Please please do give me suggestions and feedback either here or on reddit.
The raw data will be pasted below! Thank you for your views and time!
The Current Tally: 12min leaders are 34-1-3
The leader in gold at 12min wins over 90% of the time.
Losses are games in which an early lead was blown.
Ties are games that were even for the majority of the game.
Here's a link to the Google Doc with all the information: updated as of 8:33EST!
And the original reddit post: (this will always be as current as my data intake)